Some initial guidelines from one of America's top gold experts
Online interview of Michael J. Kosares(Author of The ABCs of Gold Investing - How To Protect and Build Your Wealth With Gold and founder of USAGOLD)
Question. What kind of gold should I buy?
Answer. We probably get that question more than any other -- pretty much on a daily basis. The answer, however, is not as straightforward as you might think. What you buy depends upon your goals. We usually answer the "What should I buy?" question with one of our own: "Why are you interested in buying gold?" If your goal is simply to hedge financial uncertainty and/or capitalize on price movement, then contemporary bullion coins will serve your purposes. Those concerned with the possibility of capital controls and a gold seizure, or call-in, often include historic pre-1933 gold coins in the mix. Both categories carry modest premiums over their gold melt value, track the gold price, and enjoy strong liquidity internationally.
Q. When should I buy?
A. The short answer is 'When you need it.' Gold, first and foremost, is wealth insurance. You cannot approach it the way you approach stock or real estate investments. Timing is not the real issue. The first question you need to ask yourself is whether or not you believe you need to own gold. If you answer that question in the affirmative, there is no point in delaying your actual purchase, or waiting for a more favorable price which may or may not appear. Cost averaging can be a good strategy. The real goal is to diversify so that your overall wealth is not compromised by economic dangers and uncertainties like the kind generated by the 2008 financial crisis or the debt and currency problems now unfolding in emerging countries.
Q. Why not wait for the necessity to arise, then buy gold?
A. Over the past few years, as concern about a financial and economic breakdown spread, there were periods of gold coin bottlenecks and actual shortages. In 2008-2009 at the height of the financial crisis, demand was so great that the national mints could not keep up with it. The flow of historic gold coins from Europe was also insufficient to meet accelerating demand both there and in the United States. Premiums shot-up on all gold and silver coins and a scramble developed for what was available. There is an old saying that the best time to buy gold is when everything is quiet. I would underline that sentiment. As you can see from the chart immediately below, the demand for newly minted bullion gold coins shot up dramatically in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, reached a plateau and has remained stubbornly in place ever since. Statistics for 2015 approached 2013 levels – the fourth best year on record – and demand thus far in 2016 has been at levels not seen since the period following the 2008 breakdown.
Q. Can you give us a profile of the typical gold investor?
A. Gold owners are a group of people I have come to know very well in my 40+ years in the business. Contrary to the less than flattering picture sometimes painted by the mainstream press, the people we have helped become gold owners are among those we rely upon most in our daily lives -- our physicians and dentists, nurses and teachers, plumbers, carpenters and building contractors, business owners, attorneys, engineers and university professors (to name a few.) In other words, gold ownership is pretty much a Main Street endeavor. A recent Gallup poll found that 34% of American investors rated gold the best investment "regardless of gender, age, income or party ID. . ." In that survey, investors rated gold higher than stocks, bonds, real estate and bank savings.
Q. What about high net worth investors?
A. Traditionally, wealthy, aristocratic European and Asian families have kept a strong percentage of their assets in gold as a protective factor. The long term economic picture for the United States has changed enormously over the past several years. As a result, that same philosophy has taken hold in the United States particularly among those interested in preserving their wealth both for themselves and for their families from one generation to the next. In recent years, we have helped a good many family trusts diversify with gold coins and bullion at the advice of their portfolio managers. Few people know that the United States is the third largest consumer market for gold after China and India.
Q. You frequently mention gold as insurance. What do you mean by that?
A. Gold's baseline, essential quality is its role as the only primary asset that is not someone else's liability. That separates gold from the majority of capital assets which in fact do rely on another's ability to pay, like bonds and bank savings, or the performance of the management, or some other delimiting factor, as is the case with stocks. The first chapter of my book, The ABCs of Gold Investing, ends with this: "No matter what happens in this country, with the dollar, with the stock and bond markets, the gold owner will find a friend in the yellow metal -- something to rely upon when the chips are down. In gold, investors will find a vehicle to protect their wealth. Gold is bedrock."
(Reader note: For a useful review of gold's role in preserving assets under various worst-case economic scenarios, please see Black Swans, Yellow Gold- How gold performs during periods of deflation, chronic disinflation, runaway stagflation and hyperinflation. OPEN ACCESS. )
Q. What percentage of my assets should I invest in gold?
A. Once again the answer is not cut and dry, but a general rule of thumb is 10% to 30%. How high you go between 10% and 30% depends upon how concerned you are about the current economic, financial and political situation. James Rickards, strategic investment analyst and author of the New York Times bestseller, Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis, advocates a 20% gold diversification. "Gold," explains Rickards, "is not a commodity. Gold is not an investment. Gold is money par excellence."
Source: http://www.usagold.com
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